I’ve sort of come to the same conclusion that it’s too late and risky to put the infrastructure needed today to launch a new candidate. It was done in the past, and I think it still should be, but with the advent of super pacs and campaign costs it’d be hard to get that going for someone that might not have the name recognition in time for the less informed voters.
The only comfort I get is to remember that Trump isn’t gaining new voters, certainly not young people and I suspect non white voters either. The thing that bothers me is that casual independent voters who usually turn out for democrats are disgruntled enough with the economy, high rents, housing, and interest rates, decide to stay home or flip to Trump. There’s always that grip/protest voter in every country that swing elections back and forth and it’s usually disgruntlement about the economy. THAT worries me and low enthusiasm that could hurt Senate and House races that we desperately need to win.
My vote for president in Texas never counts anyway, and other than city council races never does much in any other races, but I always vote and will this time.
You are right about the down ballot concerns, Mike. I think that's got a as much to do with discussions right now as Biden's chances. The two bases are unflinching, regardless of the mental acuity of either of the candidates, but I don't think anybody knows what's going on with the undecideds. And the debate may have pushed them into the ether or towards Trump, neither of which is a good effect.
Mike, your observation about casual independent voters is spot on. These are the people we need to convince to vote D, but I'm afraid we've lost them. I don't think they'll vote for Drumpf, but, as you point out, they'll stay home. It'll be a nail biter in November. We must put most of our efforts into winning both Houses of Congress.
I've been to a lot of presidential debates through the years as both a correspondent and an analyst, and I still don't think a one of them has had a final impact on the vote, Stephen, with the exception of Kennedy/Nixon and I was too young to be a reporter then!
This debate was different, though, we had one candidate looking like a lost grandpa and another a raging, lying lunatic. These are the choices Americans get in the 21st century?
Just read an article about how Biden and his family are gathering today to discuss his future in the presidential race. I have really mixed feelings about this. I think my biggest fear is him dropping out without the Dems rallying around one candidate, preferably with a VP already chosen. That strategy would have to be surgically executed. If not, the Democratic convention will be an absolute infighting shit-show, fracturing any possibility of a November win.
There have been presidents chosen via floor fights and votes at conventions but you have to go back to, I think, Woodrow Wilson and Warren G. Harding. There is a process for Biden to release delegates and lead to a floor nomination of a new candidate but the unknown in all this is how the public will respond? Polls all say we want a different candidate. Maybe voters get excited by the next generation finally getting passed the torch and the Creamsicle Caligula is resoundingly defeated?
Yes, I’m thinking the same thing. He governs well. He hires good people. He is a good person. He beat Trump once already. I think Trump ought to drop out: convicted felon, pathological liar, incompetent narcissist… shall I go on?
I am particularly pissed about the NYT asking Biden to bail out. There have been many and manifest reasons to make a similar demand about Trump long before now and they've never even alluded to asking him to quit. And I agree with your assessment of Biden, Mauri; I don't think his performance is at issue as a president but the debate made his potential future performance fall into some doubt, and thereby hangs our fate.
Biden could have had a heart attack and died on the debate stage, and he would still get my vote over Trump. Unfortunately, the debate wasn't for me and my kindred souls...or for the magats. It was about those independents and undecided who for some unknown reason still haven't made up their minds.
And fair or not, Biden's performance may have moved the needle for those folks...in the wrong direction. Here's the sad thing... if we had a vice-president EVERYONE could rally behind, I think this decision would have already been made.
Yah, I've said, Al, that if Biden were in hospice I'd still vote for him over Trump. But the Ds will have a new candidate by week's end, or close. I don't think Joe can pull it off. And you can tell the Rs are worried about it because not a single one of them or their surrogates have mentioned Biden resigning.
Biden came (maybe over) prepared for a debate. He wasn't ready for a lie by lie refutation of a trump rally. So he lost that, but not a debate.
Worst case, if Biden wins, his "dementia" leads to a 25th Amendment takeover by the VP. It could be a lot worse.
Recall the last time an incumbent decided not to run a few months before the election. If not for Wallace chewing off a big chunk of Nixon's vote, it would have been an ever bigger blowout.
Regardless, what should be remembered this week is how SCOTUS dismembered the United States, not what two old men did Thursday evening.
This essay, as contrasted with the one I wrote Friday (Three-Point Shots, June 28, 2024), shows the benefit of taking time to let things settle and calm the f*ck down. I called for him (and Kamala) to drop out of the race tout suite, but cooler heads may prevail.
It’s clear that the worst of all possible scenarios is Donald Trump’s second presidency. But, even if Biden pulls this off, there is room for concern about his health and cognition as he enters a second term.
I still think it is an open question and I believe there will be an effort by insiders to gently guide Biden toward this decision. I do not, however, think he will agree to quit. People looking at their own minds and health, even in their 80s, don't want to believe they are going to lose their faculties in the near term.
I’ve sort of come to the same conclusion that it’s too late and risky to put the infrastructure needed today to launch a new candidate. It was done in the past, and I think it still should be, but with the advent of super pacs and campaign costs it’d be hard to get that going for someone that might not have the name recognition in time for the less informed voters.
The only comfort I get is to remember that Trump isn’t gaining new voters, certainly not young people and I suspect non white voters either. The thing that bothers me is that casual independent voters who usually turn out for democrats are disgruntled enough with the economy, high rents, housing, and interest rates, decide to stay home or flip to Trump. There’s always that grip/protest voter in every country that swing elections back and forth and it’s usually disgruntlement about the economy. THAT worries me and low enthusiasm that could hurt Senate and House races that we desperately need to win.
My vote for president in Texas never counts anyway, and other than city council races never does much in any other races, but I always vote and will this time.
You are right about the down ballot concerns, Mike. I think that's got a as much to do with discussions right now as Biden's chances. The two bases are unflinching, regardless of the mental acuity of either of the candidates, but I don't think anybody knows what's going on with the undecideds. And the debate may have pushed them into the ether or towards Trump, neither of which is a good effect.
Mike, your observation about casual independent voters is spot on. These are the people we need to convince to vote D, but I'm afraid we've lost them. I don't think they'll vote for Drumpf, but, as you point out, they'll stay home. It'll be a nail biter in November. We must put most of our efforts into winning both Houses of Congress.
I've been to a lot of presidential debates through the years as both a correspondent and an analyst, and I still don't think a one of them has had a final impact on the vote, Stephen, with the exception of Kennedy/Nixon and I was too young to be a reporter then!
This debate was different, though, we had one candidate looking like a lost grandpa and another a raging, lying lunatic. These are the choices Americans get in the 21st century?
Just read an article about how Biden and his family are gathering today to discuss his future in the presidential race. I have really mixed feelings about this. I think my biggest fear is him dropping out without the Dems rallying around one candidate, preferably with a VP already chosen. That strategy would have to be surgically executed. If not, the Democratic convention will be an absolute infighting shit-show, fracturing any possibility of a November win.
There have been presidents chosen via floor fights and votes at conventions but you have to go back to, I think, Woodrow Wilson and Warren G. Harding. There is a process for Biden to release delegates and lead to a floor nomination of a new candidate but the unknown in all this is how the public will respond? Polls all say we want a different candidate. Maybe voters get excited by the next generation finally getting passed the torch and the Creamsicle Caligula is resoundingly defeated?
Newsom/Buttigieg !
Yes, I’m thinking the same thing. He governs well. He hires good people. He is a good person. He beat Trump once already. I think Trump ought to drop out: convicted felon, pathological liar, incompetent narcissist… shall I go on?
I am particularly pissed about the NYT asking Biden to bail out. There have been many and manifest reasons to make a similar demand about Trump long before now and they've never even alluded to asking him to quit. And I agree with your assessment of Biden, Mauri; I don't think his performance is at issue as a president but the debate made his potential future performance fall into some doubt, and thereby hangs our fate.
Biden could have had a heart attack and died on the debate stage, and he would still get my vote over Trump. Unfortunately, the debate wasn't for me and my kindred souls...or for the magats. It was about those independents and undecided who for some unknown reason still haven't made up their minds.
And fair or not, Biden's performance may have moved the needle for those folks...in the wrong direction. Here's the sad thing... if we had a vice-president EVERYONE could rally behind, I think this decision would have already been made.
Yah, I've said, Al, that if Biden were in hospice I'd still vote for him over Trump. But the Ds will have a new candidate by week's end, or close. I don't think Joe can pull it off. And you can tell the Rs are worried about it because not a single one of them or their surrogates have mentioned Biden resigning.
Biden came (maybe over) prepared for a debate. He wasn't ready for a lie by lie refutation of a trump rally. So he lost that, but not a debate.
Worst case, if Biden wins, his "dementia" leads to a 25th Amendment takeover by the VP. It could be a lot worse.
Recall the last time an incumbent decided not to run a few months before the election. If not for Wallace chewing off a big chunk of Nixon's vote, it would have been an ever bigger blowout.
Regardless, what should be remembered this week is how SCOTUS dismembered the United States, not what two old men did Thursday evening.
This essay, as contrasted with the one I wrote Friday (Three-Point Shots, June 28, 2024), shows the benefit of taking time to let things settle and calm the f*ck down. I called for him (and Kamala) to drop out of the race tout suite, but cooler heads may prevail.
It’s clear that the worst of all possible scenarios is Donald Trump’s second presidency. But, even if Biden pulls this off, there is room for concern about his health and cognition as he enters a second term.
I still think it is an open question and I believe there will be an effort by insiders to gently guide Biden toward this decision. I do not, however, think he will agree to quit. People looking at their own minds and health, even in their 80s, don't want to believe they are going to lose their faculties in the near term.