What Now, America?

There doesn’t seem to be much solidified just now about the future of Joe Biden as the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee. In fact, there seem to be two camps developing in the party after the historic zone-out at the first debate with the hedonistic hero of the right. There are endless conversations now among Democratic Party operatives and political consultants and pundits about how to guide Joe off the stage and there are donors and supporters who insist the choice cannot be undone. The attitude is, “He’s our guy. It’s too late and too dramatic and too risky to trot out someone new.”

The counter to that argument is, of course, an even greater risk might be manifest in trying to regain a little Joe-mentum. How do you make a man “un-old?” That’s really the challenge for Democrats; not trying to give Biden the appearance of being younger and more vital than he is but just repairing his image in a manner that helps people forget the gaping debate mouth in the two-shot and the stare that made him look like he saw his own mortality coming at him from across the room. As garbled as most of his answers were to debate questions, I think they hurt him less than the imagery he left in the minds of 50 million TV viewers as a grampa almost falling asleep standing up after an early bird special at the local Luby’s cafeteria.

There are many, many items regarding his presidency that are not open to discussion, regardless of lies told by Trump and his surrogates. Joe Biden might be the most consequential one-term president of the past 75 years. His legislative accomplishments, even without a majority, have been significant. The American economy is being described as “the envy of the world” and “the engine that is driving growth across the planet.” Almost uncountable millions of jobs have been created by the Infrastructure Act and the Recovery Act and a few hundred thousand appear to get added every month. Government investment in computer chip manufacturing is bringing that production back into the U.S. from overseas, health care and drugs are more affordable and increasingly available, and we were all provided assistance to get through the modern era’s pandemic. Books will be written about what Biden did in his first term because there is simply too much policy with significant impact to even begin analysis in short form.

No one can make a cogent argument that when he is 100 percent Joe Biden that he is not a good president. Too much accomplishment crushes any such assertion, but he is no longer 100 percent Joe Biden, and thereby hangs the tale. What to do about it? As shocked as Americans were about his lack of a performance at the debate, there seemed to be less surprise over the 30 plus lies spouted out by Trump. Further, there are no questions about Biden’s heart and who he is as a person, which is as stark a contrast as could be developed between him and Trump. This president gives a damn and is seemingly working to improve life in this country and sustain international order. Many of us disagree with him on matters like unflinching support for Israel and Netanyahu and the genocide being perpetrated on Palestinians in Gaza, but when the alternative is Trump, a moral compromise enters the political calculus.

The great panic that ran through Democratic hearts after Biden’s face plant was that his appearance and babbling linguistics had ended his campaign, or would destroy it, eventually. The unexplored dynamic, which got little immediate consideration, is that base supporters for both candidates have been frozen in place. Biden backers watching him stumble were unlikely to turn their support to Trump and no matter how euphoric the MAGAts were at the end, their guy’s lying did not induce voters to move away from Biden to the Mara Lago Madman. In fact, 538 and Ipsos conducted polling before and after the debate among likely voters and found almost no movement away from Biden, among debate watchers and those who did not, and a wide majority concluded the president had failed, but their candidate preference was unchanged. Maybe the only debate that has ever mattered in presidential politics was Kennedy/Nixon, which showed the Californian and future conman sweating profusely on camera while JFK was cool and articulate.

Here’s what 538/Ipsos found: “Turning in the best performance in a debate only matters if it translates into votes — so we also asked poll respondents (both those who watched the debate and those who didn’t) which candidates they were considering voting for after the debate. And if there was any silver lining from the debate for Biden, this was it: The face-off doesn’t seem to have caused many people to reconsider their vote. That said, Biden did lose a small share of potential voters: Post-debate, 46.7 percent of likely voters said they were considering voting for him, which was 1.6 percentage points lower than before the debate.”

There is harm to Biden’s image and it is reasonable to question whether he can manage another four years. He looked frail and lacking cognitive capabilities, which are sort of essential for a man who will have the nuclear codes near at hand. Replacing him, as much as it may need to happen, is a dicey process and fraught with political peril. My belief, however, is that he ought to release his delegates to vote for a new standard bearer and the party should put forth a few candidates for nominating speeches and a floor vote at the convention. Those 3 or 4 pre-selected would have a couple of months to make their case in public appearances and then close the deal with convention speeches before a vote. Might sound simple, but it’s not. There is much infrastructure and money and experience already invested in the incumbent.

My sense is that the panic is abating and the Democrats are convinced Trump’s outrageousness at the debate, his unchecked lying on every question, turned off voters worse than Biden’s shocked countenance when trying to formulate answers. Anecdotes are all over the web on political sites about Biden supporters who are reframing their initial impressions away from “disaster” to “at least we don’t have Trump.” The unanswered question about the likely continual decline of Biden’s mental faculties over the course of the next four years will not disappear, however, and will almost certainly be a consideration in the voting booth. Trump’s consistent word slurring and losing his way at rallies does not exactly present a viable option to Biden, however.

I began hearing from friends the moment the president walked onto the debate stage looking like a lost greeter who realized he was supposed to be at the entrance of the Walmart store but didn’t quite know its location. “This is not starting out well,” was one text, and another said, “I foresee a Mitch McConnell event,” a reference to the Senate Minority Leader’s panicked freeze during a news conference. Biden might have fared better just locking up a few times instead of ending an answer with “We beat Medicare.” As the 90 minutes dragged along, my phone showed, “OMG! What a disaster! What will Ds do?” and “I see no way he can remain the nominee.” The horrors among voters are subsiding, though, I suspect, because Trump’s troubled gray matter provides context.

The note below came from a friend who almost foresaw the end of the free world in Biden’s debate fumble.

“I'm feeling a little better about this. Starting to think that all is not lost. If he can show some humility, as he did yesterday, and acknowledge he had a poor performance the other night, that he doesn't walk as well or speak as well as he used to, but that he knows the truth, and right from wrong, I think he still has a chance of convincing people of what a threat Trump poses, and what's at stake in this election. A convention battle seems too messy and risky.”

I am, therefore, doubtful the discussions about dropping out of the race will get serious in the president’s inner circle. Donors and the consultant class will have much to discuss in the week’s leading up to the convention, but the Biden camp will be unmoved. They realize, as does my friend in his comment above, that politics has always been a function of context and perspective, and one old guy with failing faculties but a fine record and good judgment is better risk than another old guy who thinks only of himself and vengeance.