The election is over 400 days away. Polls are useless at this point. Once Donald Trump is confirmed as the Republican candidate things will crystallize for influenceable voters and Joe Biden’s age will fade as a concern (as many current focus groups illustrate). Meanwhile, I’d rather the most politically skilled Democratic politician concentrate on the many current challenges we have at home and in the world rather than participating in a beauty pageant that would distract from governing. His record stands for itself. Newsom’s and Whitmer’s experience is at the state level and pales by comparison. Their day will come if they can demonstrate competence and vision on foreign affairs and broad national issues.
Yours is a cogent analysis, and I mostly agree. As a political reporter of more than 40 years, I have an intimate familiarity with the flaws of polling. But the question of age as an issue is an unavoidable truth. There's also no doubt he is the man most skilled and prepared for the job in terms of issues and accomplishments, but there remains a grave risk associated with his age. I think it has to be addressed in a manner that assuages the electorate's fear. I've offered one approach that benefits him and the party's future. I realize this will never happen, of course, but this issue will be in the back of the mind of everyone who goes into the booth next November. I hope it can be made to go away, or at least be significantly diminished as a concern.
Your analysis has merit, but let me first point out a huge omission that surprised me both in your text as well as in the commentary: no mention at all of Jimmy Carter's challenger, Ted Kennedy, who declared his candidacy in November 1979. There is little doubt in my mind that this process weakened President Carter if only to the degree that it gave the national press an initial horse race upon which to fixate. I believe that a parallel serious challenge by Newsom or Whitmer, both certainly admirable, would have the same effect. I think they know this as well... as does the VP, for sure, whom I am confident is prepared to step in should fate play a role in the story.
Given the stakes with regard to domestic affairs and the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, I have concluded that we would be better served by a campaign led by Biden's team that could focus entirely on the contrasts with Trump, MAGA, and the GOP as an increasingly dubious and dangerous institution in its own right. That said, I have concerns about Joe Biden's vitality that have been abated a bit by his presense these past few weeks both behind the scenes and in the limelight of the conflict in the Middle East as well as in the chaos within the halls of Congress.
For what it's worth, I would like to see a generational change soon as much as anyone. Independent of the human tragedy involved, I frankly wish we didn't have all the horrific noise from overseas at the moment and that Joe Biden would proactively and selflessly pass the baton to Kamala Harris and that Nikki Haley could also displace Trump from his stance atop the shoulders of his MAGA supporters.
That would be a campaign worth watching if only for the exploding heads from the racists and misogynists still among us...
Yep, I absolutely did forget Carter and Teddy. I was a wee lad in those days and a neophyte radio reporter but was on the story. And I've read more than my share of political history. Also, I think Joe is the right guy with the right capabilities but we live in a marketing nation and everything is a marketing problem, which means his brand has taken a hit because of his age. His other unfortunate challenge is that no one seems aware of his many and manifest accomplishments as president. That's probably his party's fault for never being good at messaging or marketing, but if he is going to defeat Orange Julius again, they need to get focused.
The headline should read: "A Moderate Proposal." Look, here in a nutshell is the problem; liberals think the pandemic was managed poorly from the top down [I worked alongside some highly regarded Dems seeking federal legislation for Long Covid, for which nothing has been accomplished thanks to people on both sides of the aisle sitting on their hands]. And conservatives are more worried about having their rights stripped and taxes raised than a pandemic that killed close to one million Americans. The only moderate I've heard who's even come close to a viable solution is Pete Buttigieg--who is gay. So when you venture beyond the passive-aggressive language coming from both sides and general voter apathy, precisely where do you turn? If you can solve that dilemma, you have your answer.
Lately, I believe President Biden has lacked energy at the podium. Though he is overly substantial in his qualifications he should not be anointed by the DNC. Your suggestions have value, and, for me, mostly in Harris's regard. She needs to build voter confidence in her ability to pick up the mantle if needed. Strengthening her visibility will strengthen Biden's poll numbers. I would certainly enjoy seeing any VP debate with her opposition. This, critically, is her moment to seize as well.
Do you think that people like Whitmer and Newsom would be willing to run in a primary against Biden? Do you think it's too late, even if they would? (For people like me in Iowa, primary selection is about three months away. ) What would happen if Biden is the candidate but if he were to die shortly before the election? Could any other Democrat still get on the ballots? Would we have to do write-ins?
The election is over 400 days away. Polls are useless at this point. Once Donald Trump is confirmed as the Republican candidate things will crystallize for influenceable voters and Joe Biden’s age will fade as a concern (as many current focus groups illustrate). Meanwhile, I’d rather the most politically skilled Democratic politician concentrate on the many current challenges we have at home and in the world rather than participating in a beauty pageant that would distract from governing. His record stands for itself. Newsom’s and Whitmer’s experience is at the state level and pales by comparison. Their day will come if they can demonstrate competence and vision on foreign affairs and broad national issues.
Yours is a cogent analysis, and I mostly agree. As a political reporter of more than 40 years, I have an intimate familiarity with the flaws of polling. But the question of age as an issue is an unavoidable truth. There's also no doubt he is the man most skilled and prepared for the job in terms of issues and accomplishments, but there remains a grave risk associated with his age. I think it has to be addressed in a manner that assuages the electorate's fear. I've offered one approach that benefits him and the party's future. I realize this will never happen, of course, but this issue will be in the back of the mind of everyone who goes into the booth next November. I hope it can be made to go away, or at least be significantly diminished as a concern.
This.
Your analysis has merit, but let me first point out a huge omission that surprised me both in your text as well as in the commentary: no mention at all of Jimmy Carter's challenger, Ted Kennedy, who declared his candidacy in November 1979. There is little doubt in my mind that this process weakened President Carter if only to the degree that it gave the national press an initial horse race upon which to fixate. I believe that a parallel serious challenge by Newsom or Whitmer, both certainly admirable, would have the same effect. I think they know this as well... as does the VP, for sure, whom I am confident is prepared to step in should fate play a role in the story.
Given the stakes with regard to domestic affairs and the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, I have concluded that we would be better served by a campaign led by Biden's team that could focus entirely on the contrasts with Trump, MAGA, and the GOP as an increasingly dubious and dangerous institution in its own right. That said, I have concerns about Joe Biden's vitality that have been abated a bit by his presense these past few weeks both behind the scenes and in the limelight of the conflict in the Middle East as well as in the chaos within the halls of Congress.
For what it's worth, I would like to see a generational change soon as much as anyone. Independent of the human tragedy involved, I frankly wish we didn't have all the horrific noise from overseas at the moment and that Joe Biden would proactively and selflessly pass the baton to Kamala Harris and that Nikki Haley could also displace Trump from his stance atop the shoulders of his MAGA supporters.
That would be a campaign worth watching if only for the exploding heads from the racists and misogynists still among us...
Yep, I absolutely did forget Carter and Teddy. I was a wee lad in those days and a neophyte radio reporter but was on the story. And I've read more than my share of political history. Also, I think Joe is the right guy with the right capabilities but we live in a marketing nation and everything is a marketing problem, which means his brand has taken a hit because of his age. His other unfortunate challenge is that no one seems aware of his many and manifest accomplishments as president. That's probably his party's fault for never being good at messaging or marketing, but if he is going to defeat Orange Julius again, they need to get focused.
The headline should read: "A Moderate Proposal." Look, here in a nutshell is the problem; liberals think the pandemic was managed poorly from the top down [I worked alongside some highly regarded Dems seeking federal legislation for Long Covid, for which nothing has been accomplished thanks to people on both sides of the aisle sitting on their hands]. And conservatives are more worried about having their rights stripped and taxes raised than a pandemic that killed close to one million Americans. The only moderate I've heard who's even come close to a viable solution is Pete Buttigieg--who is gay. So when you venture beyond the passive-aggressive language coming from both sides and general voter apathy, precisely where do you turn? If you can solve that dilemma, you have your answer.
See Jeanean above.
Lately, I believe President Biden has lacked energy at the podium. Though he is overly substantial in his qualifications he should not be anointed by the DNC. Your suggestions have value, and, for me, mostly in Harris's regard. She needs to build voter confidence in her ability to pick up the mantle if needed. Strengthening her visibility will strengthen Biden's poll numbers. I would certainly enjoy seeing any VP debate with her opposition. This, critically, is her moment to seize as well.
David Brooks, the conservative columnist for the NYTimes, wrote an excellent piece in support of President Biden. It deserves reading along with Jim's excellent piece: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/06/opinion/joe-biden-trump-election.html
Do you think that people like Whitmer and Newsom would be willing to run in a primary against Biden? Do you think it's too late, even if they would? (For people like me in Iowa, primary selection is about three months away. ) What would happen if Biden is the candidate but if he were to die shortly before the election? Could any other Democrat still get on the ballots? Would we have to do write-ins?
Excellent questions. Harris would be in the race. She, as much as Joe, deserves and needs the spotlight to earn her place in the national debate.