The Road Back to Joe

An Immodest Proposal

The Democrats need a presidential primary, and there is still time for other candidates to campaign against President Biden. In a different political era, this might be considered insulting, an abridgment of tradition and protocol, but there are too many risk factors to give the incumbent his job for a second term without him being further tested. Joe Biden’s presidency has already been historic, and his accomplishments have had significant positive impact on the country he leads. He deserves another term, but he also owes it to the electorate to prove he remains up to the job.

Voters are, justifiably, concerned about his age and the fact that the president would be 82 at his second inauguration. Biden is, by all appearances, a healthy and vital man, and his physicians indicate he is up to his daily tasks. Unfortunately, those assessments are apparently not sufficient for 69 percent of his own party’s voters, and three quarters of the general public. The president might live another couple decades given his health profile, but after his accumulated decades there is an increased chance he simply might not.

Age is not, of course, the only reason the president ought to go through the primary process. His party, and those who might choose to run against him, will be able to show they are able to debate issues and act like sane and sober adults concerned about their country’s future, and not like Republicans who believe the last election was stolen and that the insurrectionists of January 6 were really just tourists slightly out of control. The putative opponents of Mr. Biden will also be exhibiting their capabilities, and even if they do not defeat the president, candidates will have exposure that positions them for a run in the following election cycle. There is an incalculable value in showing the American electorate that politics can be civil and even curative of our present partisan sicknesses. We have forgotten that fact.

Rank and file Democratic Party activists and their organizational leadership will bristle at the notion an incumbent president must prove himself in a difficult primary process, but the public’s confidence in Biden’s age and capabilities must be addressed. How does he do that? Simply debating honorable potential opponents like California Governor Gavin Newsom or Michigan’s Governor Gretchen Whitmer. They have both been tested politically and in terms of developing programs that are popular in their states. While Whitmer has generally concentrated her governance and grass roots efforts in her home state, Newsom has been busy on the national stage confronting Trump’s absurdities, raising money for candidates and progressive causes to help people.

The voters could watch these candidates and then make an informed judgment as to whether Joe Biden deserves another term, regardless of his age. His performance in office certainly has earned him the nomination, but to reassure his constituencies, he ought to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with a younger generation of leaders and convince them and the rest of the country he has the faculties to carry on and accomplish even greater things. Imagine a president like Biden with a majority house and senate and what type of transformative legislation might get passed to improve this country. Proving politics can still be conducted with honor and without condescension and outright disdain for other ideas will attract and educate voters, and might even begin to heal our wounded national discourse.

The president also needs to consider his approval ratings. They remain abysmally low even though his legislative record is long and he has proved a steady hand through Covid, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and, suddenly, the new conflict between Israel and Hamas. The world needs experienced statesmen, and there are few more traveled and connected on global challenges than the current American president. His numbers among American voters are certain to increase, even without a primary race against other Democrats, but letting the public see the president on the campaign trail, cogent, energetic, and determined, will surely solve his problems with approval and polls.

Challenges to incumbent presidents are nothing new to American politics. Harry Truman dropped out of his reelection race after he was defeated in the New Hampshire Primary by Democratic U.S. Senator Estes Kefauver, who, obviously, did not become president. Bedraggled by scandals in his administration, northern Democrats made it clear they were not enthusiastic about giving their party’s standard-bearer Truman another four years. George H. W. Bush was challenged in 1992 by Patrick Buchanan, considered to be a more conservative Republican, and, in the 19th century, Andrew Johnson, Chester Arthur, and John Tyler, and Millard Fillmore, all failed to win renomination after holding the office.

The closest historical parallel for Biden, however, is Lyndon Johnson. In 1968, LBJ was, by any measurement, a consequential president with a significant list of achievements for his country. His Great Society reforms made a profound impact on the lives of the disadvantaged and he had led the passage of the Voting Rights Act and the Civil Rights Act. Unfortunately, he had also sent his country’s youth into the rice paddies of Southeast Asia and his approval ratings, as the war wagged on, approximated Biden’s current numbers. The anti-war movement was dragging down LBJ’s aspirations for a second term and when fellow Democrat, U.S. Senator Eugene McCarthy ran against LBJ in New Hampshire, the sitting president knew he was in political trouble when he only beat the Vietnam War opponent by seven points. Robert Kennedy jumped into the race a week later and LBJ’s numbers continued to plummet as other options appeared before voters. Johnson announced he was not running for reelection, privately devastated by numbers that showed he had less than twelve percent of the vote in a Wisconsin poll.

Biden has no U.S. troops engaged in combat but Russia’s war with Ukraine threatens NATO and the Mideast catching fire with Hamas and Israel compound his challenges at home where he seemingly gets no credit for constant job growth and an economy that continues to defy dark predictions. If statesmanship and policies to resolve problems are not gaining the president support, then it seems one answer would be to campaign against primary opponents and show his contemporary capabilities and why his health ought to be a minor consideration. There seems no other actions that might render unto the president the credit and support he deserves. People are frightened that he will become frail in a second term and he cannot address their perceptions by simply being a good president. Voters need a reassurance and campaigning in primaries against his party’s next generation will provide context for the electorate.

Having prepared potential successors is also a kind of insurance for Democrats. If the president were to falter physically, voters in the Democratic primaries will know enough about candidates like Whitmer and Newsom that they will be able to more readily step to the podium and make their pleas for support. If they are not needed, the younger generation can go back to their home states, continue to serve and prepare for the future, but also get out on the campaign trail for the incumbent president. Vice President Kamala Harris, who could, obviously, not campaign against her president, would, nonetheless, be compelled to be on the hustings supporting him and making her case that he, and her, are the best choice. If the president should happen to not be available for the job, Harris will be positioned as a leading candidate for her party, and increased exposure will help her overcome her lack of popularity, which is lower than Biden’s approval rating. (She would, obviously, succeed to the presidency if anything happened to Biden while in office.)

The amount of disruption this idea might cause within the Democratic Party with grass roots organizations, donors, advisors, and every bit of infrastructure and human resources that go into building a successful presidential campaign; well, it’s clearly not insignificant. Neither, however, is the public’s hesitation about the president’s age. I have thought the smartest move for Mr. Biden would be to announce he is not running and leave the race to his party’s next generation. History would remember him as a one-term president of great consequence, maybe even the greatest to serve only four years. It is clear, though, Biden sees himself as the man best suited to defeat the likely GOP nominee, Donald Trump.

But what if he’s not available?