(Back to politics this week. I hear there is an election or something going on. I think one of the most important results of the vote this year will be the insights into the efficacy of polling. The profession has pretty much blown things in the most recent elections, and I’m hearing the business is no longer sustainable because of issues caused by wireless technology, which is examined a bit in this week’s piece. Reminder to share, subscribe if you haven’t, paid or free, and spread the word about my weekly missives. Please note the addition of a tip jar at the end of the piece, in case one is suitably inspired. - JM)
Thanks, John. I've hated polling forever and can't even begin to count the number of stories I had to do on various polls. They serve no purpose for public consumption. Voters don't need to know the status of races. Internally, they can help candidates understand where they are and what issues might help drive their voters, but externally, there is no value in predictions and probabilities of electoral outcomes. Plus, most of them conducted this election cycle have been by groups closely associated with the GOP.
Online polling isn't accurate, Ed. Can never really be. People who self-select and go to a site to take a poll are invariably doing so with an interest, which is usually to express their preference to help their candidate. But you are right about polls not going away. We just need to see them for what they are. Most of the polls conducted this year have been by surveyors closely associated with Republicans.
That kind of question is valuable to get answered, Glenn. I just hope there are enough voters, especially women, who ask it of the candidates they vote for. And now I've seen numbers that only 28 percent of women have voted early. Hope to hell that picks up Tuesday.
In polling I've seen this year, Roe really cuts when it's talked about in context of two candidates, an abortion rights candidate and an anti-abortion candidate. It's a significant negative for the latter. It's different from polls that ask voters what their top issues are. Is it significant enough to cause some Rs and R-leaning independents (independents are almost always R-leaning) to vote for Democrats? That's what we're going to find out, I guess.
Thank you for that Research. I stopped trusting polls after 2016 election. Eating a cricket ?! Ew I hope Moore is right - I agree women don’t just forget about Roe because is a different month. Women will vote and hopefully keep this country free - in its literal sense of the word.
Jim, good essay. I am going to get into the meltdown of polling in a future post of my own, and took Keir's comments to heart.
Here's a theory: the lower turnout and participation in Texas are the result, not the harbinger, of the more illiberal future we all fear. Texas has now had 30 years of unified, single-party government during which the in-party's corruption has gone up while the quality of its candidates has gone down. Crooks like Ken Paxton are lionized while good guys like Kel Seliger and Lyle Larson head for the exits. Meanwhile, the Legislature passes the most restrictive voting laws in the country and puts a bounty on women seeking abortions.
I have been praying that there will be no violence from either side. I think there has been a LOT of fear porn on both sides. If the democrats loose their seats they have only themselves to blame. If the republicans fail to get the seats they want they have only themselves to blame. I wish they’d quit polling!!! If the republicans gain the seats they are hoping for, it will be an indication that women care more about the economy right now than abortion rights. I think people vote in the moment on things that are real for them right this minute. There is so much Trump bathtub ring and it is fouling everything up. Pray for peace regardless the outcome.
like all your pieces.... an exceptional work. I have never liked polling.... or journalists' dependence on them for reporting. I think the piece is on to something. Polling results are only good if the sample is good and the respondents are honest... all less likely to be the case has our faith in the Republic declines....
Interesting on the viability of polling, but I understand that the reluctance to answer the phone is being countered with online polling. And of course, even if polling is losing its predictive abilities, it will remain useful to sway public opinion with the bandwagon effect and dynamic response feedback loops. Poll workers read a script for a reason.
Thanks, John. I've hated polling forever and can't even begin to count the number of stories I had to do on various polls. They serve no purpose for public consumption. Voters don't need to know the status of races. Internally, they can help candidates understand where they are and what issues might help drive their voters, but externally, there is no value in predictions and probabilities of electoral outcomes. Plus, most of them conducted this election cycle have been by groups closely associated with the GOP.
Online polling isn't accurate, Ed. Can never really be. People who self-select and go to a site to take a poll are invariably doing so with an interest, which is usually to express their preference to help their candidate. But you are right about polls not going away. We just need to see them for what they are. Most of the polls conducted this year have been by surveyors closely associated with Republicans.
That kind of question is valuable to get answered, Glenn. I just hope there are enough voters, especially women, who ask it of the candidates they vote for. And now I've seen numbers that only 28 percent of women have voted early. Hope to hell that picks up Tuesday.
I agree with your sentiments, Bridget, but fear there might be something irretrievably broken about our country.
Well, that's one descriptive.
In polling I've seen this year, Roe really cuts when it's talked about in context of two candidates, an abortion rights candidate and an anti-abortion candidate. It's a significant negative for the latter. It's different from polls that ask voters what their top issues are. Is it significant enough to cause some Rs and R-leaning independents (independents are almost always R-leaning) to vote for Democrats? That's what we're going to find out, I guess.
Thank you for that Research. I stopped trusting polls after 2016 election. Eating a cricket ?! Ew I hope Moore is right - I agree women don’t just forget about Roe because is a different month. Women will vote and hopefully keep this country free - in its literal sense of the word.
Jim, good essay. I am going to get into the meltdown of polling in a future post of my own, and took Keir's comments to heart.
Here's a theory: the lower turnout and participation in Texas are the result, not the harbinger, of the more illiberal future we all fear. Texas has now had 30 years of unified, single-party government during which the in-party's corruption has gone up while the quality of its candidates has gone down. Crooks like Ken Paxton are lionized while good guys like Kel Seliger and Lyle Larson head for the exits. Meanwhile, the Legislature passes the most restrictive voting laws in the country and puts a bounty on women seeking abortions.
I have been praying that there will be no violence from either side. I think there has been a LOT of fear porn on both sides. If the democrats loose their seats they have only themselves to blame. If the republicans fail to get the seats they want they have only themselves to blame. I wish they’d quit polling!!! If the republicans gain the seats they are hoping for, it will be an indication that women care more about the economy right now than abortion rights. I think people vote in the moment on things that are real for them right this minute. There is so much Trump bathtub ring and it is fouling everything up. Pray for peace regardless the outcome.
like all your pieces.... an exceptional work. I have never liked polling.... or journalists' dependence on them for reporting. I think the piece is on to something. Polling results are only good if the sample is good and the respondents are honest... all less likely to be the case has our faith in the Republic declines....
Interesting on the viability of polling, but I understand that the reluctance to answer the phone is being countered with online polling. And of course, even if polling is losing its predictive abilities, it will remain useful to sway public opinion with the bandwagon effect and dynamic response feedback loops. Poll workers read a script for a reason.
Texas is “funny”.