Plan B

Every time there is a release of a New York Times/Siena poll of the presidential race, the rational mind is confounded in the extreme. And, yes, I know, polls are only snapshots taken of a moment in time and that methodologies are often flawed and we really ought to be looking at trends and there’s a difference of outcomes between “registered voters” and “likely voters.” Who doesn’t get all that by now? Also, who isn’t consistently stunned by Donald Trump leading in any poll? Logic might suggest there is actually something wrong with Americans instead of polling protocols. The latest NYT survey indicates that the former president, who is also a current criminal defendant on trial, has comfortable leads in all the swing states, except for Michigan, where the incumbent president has only a one point edge on the man who lies almost as rapidly as he breathes.

People who despise Trump, and everything he has done and plans to do if he regains the White House, are looking for hope, hell, signs and portents, that he will not again be president. The leading practitioner of finding reasons to be optimistic is Simon Rosenberg, who publishes The Hopium Chronicles on Substack. His most recent dispatch to his subscribers offers a reinforcement of the data proofing up the fine job being performed by President Biden.

“The Wall Street Journal is calling the American economy ‘the envy of the world,’” he writes. “The stock market is in record territory again. Best job market since 1960s. Lowest uninsured rate ever. Most robust recovery in the G7, lowest inflation rate too. Strong wage and real wage growth. Annual deficit trillions less. The 3 big Biden bills are driving hundreds of billions in new investment, accelerating our energy transition, creating jobs and opportunities for American workers for decades to come.”

And yet, Mr. Biden seems to get no credit for any of those dynamics. His staffers, however, say the president is confident numbers in polls are moving in his direction and that he will triumph come November. The only thing for sure about that, though, is that nobody knows for sure. People were equally confident that Hillary Clinton was certain to defeat the failed real estate manipulator of Manhattan, too. But she didn’t. FBI Director James Comey, as history records, probably changed the course of the election by mentioning an ongoing, and, ultimately, supercilious investigation into Ms. Clinton’s email servers. Trump probably would not have won, otherwise. We know even more about him today than in 2016, however, and there is little to recommend him, even for an office like the local hide inspector in Muleshoe, Texas, but he is not lagging in national polls.

The president’s political burdens are presently connected to economics and geopolitics, which tend to be problematic for anyone who holds the office. In the domestic economy, even though there is low unemployment and rising wages, inflation is nibbling mightily at household prosperity. Things are expensive, though gas prices have been attenuated by reduced demand and consistent supply. Israel, of course, has become a curse and Biden has finally stood up to Netanyahu by withholding the 500 and 2000 pound dumb bombs the IDF planned to drop on Rafah as a million refugees flee. The president has not shown sufficient courage to demand an Israeli cease fire and that leaves him subject to attack from the left for allowing a genocide to continue in Gaza and from the right with claims he is not strongly enough backing the Israelis.

There is also the not insignificant matter of his age. Regardless of the poll analyzed, a majority of voters being surveyed believe the president might be too old to hold his office and effectively do the job, and an equally large number say they want a different choice than Biden or Trump. Too few voters seem to be paying attention to the former president’s manifest dementia, his inability to remember proper nouns and his garbled words along with nonsensical statements like, “The late great Hannibal Lecter,” a reference to the cannibal killer in the film “Silence of the Lambs.” Half of Trump’s speeches at his rallies are little more than non sequitur and lack context for an issue or whatever topic he is trying to pursue. None of that, however, seems to matter, nor does sworn testimony proving he was having an affair with an adult film actress while his wife was home nursing their months-old son.

There is a persuasive argument that voters in 2024 know more about Trump than they did in the previous election and that the information is so overwhelmingly negative that he cannot logically be restored to the presidency by the electorate. Would the outcome have been different in 2016 had voters known of Stormy Daniels and the Playboy Playmate? There might be some latency in current polling and the information from the trial has not yet made it into the public consciousness in a meaningful way, but for the moment, the former president’s behavior seems a non-issue for his fervent base. Stormy has not shown the power to turn more votes than did an Access Hollywood tape of misogynistic braggadocio. Biden does have more money and organization and Trump is likely to soon be a convicted felon, but nothing is moving votes significantly in the direction of either candidate. Dreaming of Nikki Haley supporters crossing over to rescue Biden is also fanciful. Democrats are wishing and hoping for polls to change and for voters to see the obvious distinction between the two men.

But what if they don’t?

Isn’t it time for the Democrats, including the president, to set up a Plan B? This wouldn’t be a public admission he plans to not run, but it could be a safety net in the event of a health incident, or if he has an epiphanic moment and realizes he does not have the energy or the will for four more years of endless fighting against attacks on logic. Biden could reach a conclusion that it is time for the next generation of his party to come forward and lead and that he has held the torch up for them with a successful four years. Historians would soon describe Biden as one of history’s most consequential one term presidents and his decision to decline the nomination a noble act of patriotism. His leadership through the pandemic and winning support for major bills like infrastructure and protecting veterans and helping keep Ukraine free will resonate through the ages. Why not have a plan in place to step away, just in case it is needed?

The harder question might be what does such a plan look like? My guess is the infrastructure of the party and flexible thinking do not exist to make such a last minute adjustment in a race of that nature. The Democratic Party has more courage than the late GOP, but how do you go to a man with Mr. Biden’s legislative accomplishments and ask him to demur? This only happens if the president makes such a decision. If he does, what then transpires depends on the timing of his announcement. The simplest thing would be to hold a news conference and give an LBJ speech telling the nation, “If nominated, I will not run. If elected, I will not serve.” If this were to happen prior to the August convention, it would give potential successors a chance to assess their potential in a presidential race and then make their cases in speeches on the convention floor.

The Democratic Party rules allow for floor nominations and petitions for placing names into consideration for a vote. A majority of delegates is nominally required for a name to be submitted. Brokered conventions can involve multiple votes for candidates with delegates changing sides and coalitions arising to push support in the direction of a single candidate. The process, even handled by an experienced parliamentarian, would appear sloppy and the optics might make the party look divided, which could actually be the case. The last time there was a brokered convention was 1952 when Adlai Stevenson became the Democratic nominee even after he had not submitted his name. You do not, of course, have any historical memory of a President Stevenson.

I doubt any of the party leadership is briefing the president on these possibilities, but it feels to many people like we are sleepwalking into the demise of our republic with no sign that Trump’s support is dramatically eroding. Mr. Biden might still win, and much is likely to change prior to that day in November, but the unknowns are frightening. Americans know more than enough about Trump to not cast their ballots for him or anyone in his party. No one can be oblivious to what he will do to our system of government if he is restored to power. There should be no uninformed voters left in America.

And if we elect Trump, we deserve the destruction that awaits.

(Quick, semi-regular note to request your support. If you like my work, please consider subscribing. My intention is to always keep this free to anyone who is interested in reading my writing and analyses. I am grateful for all subscribers but those who are paying subsidize my ability to keep it free for other readers. I realize $50 is no small amount for many people and I am terribly flattered that someone would be willing to buy a subscription. Those who cannot, I understand, but please consider sharing on your social networks. I post the links on Facebook, Linkedin, Threads, Substack Notes, and X, but X throttles Substack links and I rarely see retweets or responses to those links any more. So, if you can scatter me around to your connections, even via email, I’d be most grateful. - JM)