Down on the Rio Grande

Living on the U.S. - Mexico border has long involved suffering. Historically, and especially in Texas, the region has been politically marginalized. There were no great demographic forces to influence elections and voter turnout was consistently weak. Consequently, funding from Washington and the four border state capitals was often anemic and the indignities of poverty were ignored. When I arrived in the Rio Grande Valley of South Texas in 1975, a national news publication featured a cover story calling the region “America’s Third World.” The statistics were persuasive: lowest per capita income, lowest rate of literacy, worst child and infant mortality rate, highest number of outdoor privies, highest percentage of teen pregnancies. The border was a kind of nether zone where people and products transited en route to other more evolved and profitable destinations.

Eventually, as commerce increased between the two countries, the border began to transform into an economic powerhouse and politicians started their performative trips to express interest. New bridges were built for trucks and trains and the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) made possible growth of the concept of Maquiladoras, the manufacture of parts on the Mexican side of the river followed by shipment to U.S. plants for final assembly and delivery to customers. NAFTA phased out most tariffs on goods imported from Mexico and Canada with some exceptions that applied regarding product quotas and labor contracts. NAFTA’s superseding treaty, the United States - Mexico - Canada Agreement (USMCA) kept most trade free of tariffs.

The result of these contracts has been constant growth of trade to the point where the numbers are, frankly, almost impossible to believe. As of 2023, the United States and Mexico engage in significant cross-border commerce, with total goods exchanged valued at approximately $807 billion for the year, which equates to an average daily trade value of about $2.2 billion. This figure aligns with previous estimates, such as the 2022 report indicating nearly $1 million dollars of bilateral trade occurs across the U.S.-Mexico border every minute, translating to roughly $1.8 billion per day. Yes, a billion dollars of bilateral trade crosses la frontera every minute of every day, and those available figures are over two years old.

The border is booming but the economic expansion is at risk because of the new American president. Consider that exports from Texas supported more than 1 million jobs in this state and we exported $129.5 billion of goods to Mexico in 2023. Mexico is also consistently investing in Texas with $4.7 billion in capital that has generated 7,000 jobs in the past year. Texans, who voted for Trump by a wide margin, are seemingly putting their state’s vibrant economy in jeopardy with their support of a president who is planning on placing 25 percent tariffs on all goods and produce entering the U.S. from Mexico, trade which transits Texas. Numerous companies considering large investments in the Rio Grande Valley and near-shoring manufacturing in Nuevo Leon, Mexico have put those plans on hold.

Trump is, demonstrably, an economic fool but levying tariffs on products from Mexico and Canada will violate the USMCA Agreement, which he negotiated. The economies of all three countries would slow, dangerously, and jobs would disappear along with consumer spending. According to the Texas Department of Transportation, the four-county Rio Grande Valley of Texas handles import trade of about $33 billion annually. The Pharr-Reynosa International Bridge, which is a significant conduit for that commerce, facilitates approximately $50 billion worth of trade annually. This concludes a long compendium of statistics that ought to give everyone comfort Trump will not place tariffs on Mexico, and probably not Canada, either.

But who can be sure of the decisions of a narcissist?

What he wants is attention, and for the leaders of other countries to genuflect in his direction. He is determined to get concessions, even if only verbally, from Mexico, specifically, because of immigration and drugs. When Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum agreed to move 10,000 troops to the border to stymie immigrants and drug trade, the new American president was able to beat his chest and claim victory. He doesn’t care if the troops are sent on that mission by Sheinbaum, he just wanted her to agree to his demand, which allowed him to delay the tariffs by 30 days. When that time period has expired, you can count on Trump to claim that drug flow and illegal immigration have been reduced because of concessions he got out of the Mexican president.

Lady and the Trump

Sheinbaum said she also got a commitment from Trump that his administration would place a greater emphasis on preventing high-powered weapons from entering Mexico. That is almost certainly a lie. He will do no such thing. Trump has never made any decision or taken any action that might in any manner impede the production and sales of guns, or any type of weapons. While he might give lip service to the notion of stopping guns going south across the border, he will do nothing. It is big business. A University of Arizona study estimates that over the past decade more than 2.5 million illicit American guns have crossed into Mexico and a ten-year-old study by the University of San Diego estimated that approximately 250,000 guns are smuggled into Mexico from the U.S. each year. Sheinbaum noted that 90 percent of all the weapons seized from cartels and gangs originated in the United States. That’s a big profitable market for gun manufacturers and Trump will do nothing to interfere with their business.

I’m sorry Madam President.

Trump whined to Sheinbaum about fentanyl, too, but he never addresses U.S. citizens who have created the most lucrative market in the world for the drug. If we weren’t using it, the cartels would go out of business. The Mexican President, though, not a woman to be trifled with, called Trump “irresponsible, terribly irresponsible” because “the White House issued a document stating that there are links between the Mexican government and organized crime.” Sheinbaum pointed out to her citizens that “the U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, (ATF) which is part of the Department of Justice, acknowledged that 74 percent of the firearms used by organized crime in Mexico come illegally from their country’s military industry.”

“Our government,” Sheinbaum said, “Has seized more than 40 tons of drugs in four months, including 20 million doses of fentanyl. It has also arrested over 10,000 people linked to these groups. We have a strategy, we address the causes, and we fight impunity. Every day, we work for the country’s security. Now, if the United States government and its agencies wanted to address the severe fentanyl consumption in their country, why don’t they start by fighting the sale of narcotics on the streets of their major cities? Or how is it that people with addictions buy this drug?”

“Why don’t they ask themselves what the underlying reason is for such widespread drug consumption that has been ongoing in the United States for so long? Additionally, I mentioned it yesterday as well, look, the synthetic opioid epidemic in the United States originated from the indiscriminate prescription of such medications, which was authorized by the Food and Drug Administration, the so-called FDA, as shown by a lawsuit against a pharmaceutical company.”

The president of Mexico is asking all the right questions. The president of the U.S. is not answering because he has no answers. Meanwhile, all along the line from San Diego, California, to Brownsville, Texas, people are waiting and wondering if economic sanity will prevail and hoping there will be no tariffs.

With Trump, though, always expect the worst.