American Chaos

All predictions of political outcomes for next year’s presidential race lack even notional value. There are far too many elements in a state of constant flux to give reasonable probabilities to results of the vote for president, especially, but also the Senate and House of Representatives. The punditry is fond of saying every presidential cycle that “a lot can happen between now and Election Day,” which is likely to become the understatement of 2023 and ‘24. Maybe I am paraphrasing Yogi Berra, not sure, but the line is that, “It’s difficult to make predictions. Especially about the future.”

The number of different scenarios are almost impossible to calculate. If I were an algorithm rather than an average analyst, I might give it a go, but I think we can look at some with high probability. A few of the circumstances affecting Trump already appear fixed on the calendar, the most prominent of which is his trial on federal charges he tried to overthrow an election. U.S. District Court Judge Tanya Chutkan has set March 4 to begin hearing special prosecutor Jack Smith’s case against the former president. The trial begins the day before Super Tuesday, a long slate of states holding Republican (and Democratic) Presidential Primaries. It’s easy to suggest the timing could not be worse for Trump, but the attendant news coverage may motivate his MAGAt base to turn out and flood the zone with votes for the twice impeached Florida man.

There are a handful of contests in Iowa, (which holds caucuses rather than primaries), New Hampshire, and South Carolina, among others, prior to Super Tuesday, and, unless fate intervenes, or the law, Trump is likely to win those handily. The number of delegates, however, is small, and even with the pre-dominant winner-take-all rules of GOP primaries, Trump will have only a small percentage of the 1,234 delegates, a majority of which are needed to win his party’s nomination. The March 5th multi-state vote-orama can give him enough tallies that he becomes the putative nominee, but he will be involved in three trials, possibly four, prior to the Republican nominating convention later in the summer. He will be testifying more than campaigning.

The only case against him that does not yet have a trial date set is the racketeering charges in Georgia, which are almost certain to be responsive to speedy trial requests that could also cause the charges against some of the 19 defendants to be severed from Trump’s prosecution. Regardless, he seems doomed to be involved in four criminal trials during the height of the presidential campaign, an unprecedented set of circumstances not likely to be repeated in American history, unless we somehow elect a serial killer.

I am inclined to think Trump will continue to leak support as the trials begin and evidence and credible testimony are made public. In particular, the televising of the Georgia racketeering trial cannot be good for anyone wanting to serve in any public office. Imagine the ads that will be created from the testimony, particularly if Trump takes the stand, a situation he will likely find irresistible. When his lips move, he will be perjuring himself. More critically, though, how does an aspirant for the highest office in the land and possibly the most influential in humanity, campaign with credibility in the midst of four criminal trials? Is the American electorate so misinformed by Qanon quacks and Trump’s pathological lying and his party’s sycophantic ideology that he can be elected?

I don’t think so. Even the most rabid of MAGAts want to maintain political power for their demented philosophy, and they will have a hard time believing that four criminal cases and 91 charges and two impeachments cannot all be the product of a vast, deep-state conspiracy. They also must surely understand such baggage dims electoral prospects. I do not believe there is a sufficient number of even MAGAts to win him the nomination subsequent to the unfolding of at least three of the four trials. The Republicans are likely heading toward a floor fight for their nomination. The good news for Democrats, though, is that should Trump lose a floor fight and vote he will tell his MAGAt supporters to not cast their ballots for the GOP nominee and to simply stay home, which will almost assuredly elect the Democratic nominee for president in the fall.

And there is a non-zero chance that candidate might not be Joe Biden. The president and his likely opponent are both beginning to suffer the infirmities of age. At a remove, and based upon his dietary and non-exercise habits, along with his weight, which is at least one slab of beef more than 215 pounds, Trump has been diagnosed as being in the late stages of heart disease and arterial sclerosis. CNN’s Dr. Sanjay Gupta indicated in a 2018 analysis of Trump’s heart data that the then-president is at risk for a coronary event. Trump refuses to exercise, (unless riding a golf cart and swinging a club count as exercise), and he holds a firm belief that each person is born with a definitive number of heart beats and exercise consumes too many of that body’s share.

Mr. Biden has been diagnosed by his doctors as a “healthy and vigorous” 80-year-old who exercises five days a week. The president does, however, take medication for high cholesterol and asymptomatic atrial fibrillation, an irregular heartbeat. The Body Mass Index of the current president is undoubtedly much more favorable to health than the Howard Taft impersonator awaiting trial. Biden, however, will be 86 at the end of his second term, assuming he wins re-election. His health will almost certainly play a role in his ability to conduct the nation’s business, though it seems doubtful it becomes an issue for voters in 2024.

But it might.

What happens for the Democrats if the president decides he has enjoyed more than he can stand? He has led a long life of public service already and has no real obligation to continue. The trappings of the office are, of course, appealing, but he probably also thinks about using his limited time left with his family and grandchildren. Is he doing his party a disservice if he steps back and turns his office over to the ambitions of a new generation? I am not of any suspicion he is likely to reject a reelection campaign, and a team and offices are already being assembled in Delaware, but a chance does exist he may not run again for various reasons.

There is a long list of health issues that can confront octogenarians. What if the president has a stroke, or a heart incident? There is a chance he might experience early stage dementia and begin to sound like he is no longer capable of cognitive thought processing needed to deal with complex issues. Will he know of his shortcomings? An impaired president might not be able to make the right choice to step down from the office. Who tells him?

I have thought there are many reasons for him to not do another term, but given Trump’s issues and a party that seems determined to spin down the toilet bowl with TFG, there is a good possibility that Democrats could control both the house and the senate, which would lead to historic accomplishments in a Biden second term. Even so, were he to step away now history would judge him a consequential president based on nothing more than the Inflation Reduction Act, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, and the way he held the country together during a pandemic the Trump administration mismanaged.

What does a Biden-less Democratic Party look like in the 2024 race for the White House? A lot depends on when the president might no longer be a candidate. If a health issue forces him to decline to run sometime in the first half of next year, there will almost certainly be a Democratic Nominating Convention floor fight. Gavin Newsom, the California governor, has been confronting Trumpites and the acolytes and policies of Florida’s Ron DeSantis, and can raise money fast. He has a telegenic profile and presses all the progressive buttons on issues. Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer has turned her state into a Democratic stronghold after Trump crazies tried to steal the election and then gun nuts in K-Mart camo launched a plot to have her kidnapped. Just those two names on a Democratic ticket would offer a bit of comfort to voters worried about Mr. Biden’s health and Trump’s illicit maneuverings being repeated and succeeding.

The heir apparent, though, for Democrats, is Vice President Kamala Harris. Unfortunately, she has struggled to find her lane in the national discourse and has missed opportunities to develop platforms on various issues to raise her profile. My sense is that she has suffered the heartbreak of ineffectuality, and it is hard to understand why. Being VP is never easy, but it becomes an office that reflects the character of the individual the president has chosen as a running mate. If the Democrats end up in a floor fight, assuming Mr. Biden abdicates or is stricken with health problems, giving VP Harris an honest opportunity to win the nomination is essential to sustaining the engagement of black voters. Her presence on any ticket might become a political requirement for Democratic success.

There are many dynamics in place that might lead to these eventualities, but the odds are long. However, all kinds of improbabilities have arisen even since dumbo rode down the golden escalator. Chaos often appears to have taken over American politics, culture, and economics. There are sufficient reasons to believe it can be a prime mover in this presidential race. Mr. Biden’s health and aspirations are likely to guide the American electorate to a time when we no longer have to worry about a vengeful, pathological, malignant narcissist determined to destroy this country to defend his irreparable reputation.

But two floor fights would be too cool.